Scorecard
What this page is
Most market commentary never gets marked. This does. Whenever the analysis says a market should move in a particular direction with reasonable confidence, that prediction is written down along with the price at the time. When its time is up, it gets compared against what actually happened and scored right or wrong.
Nothing here is edited afterwards. The misses stay on the page.
- The call. A story predicted US IG OAS would go down by 5 to 15 basis points over weeks.
- The starting point. It was at 0.99% when the call was made.
- What happened. It moved -5bp.
- The verdict. Right direction, so it counts as a hit.
Moves smaller than 3 basis points (bonds and credit) or 0.3% (everything else) count as "barely moved" and are left out of the percentage, so the score is not flattered by noise.
If the tool has real signal, the calls it was most confident about should be right more often than the ones it hedged on. If they are not, the confidence scale means nothing and this chart will show it.